When Princes, Partnerships & PNLs Collide 💥
GM, GM — we are back. After a rare missed episode, both of us were wandering around like NPCs. Diego was staring at walls, Nick felt like he had no one to talk to :D
🇸🇦 THE CROWN PRINCE DISCOVERS POLYMARKET
A surreal moment: the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia jokes on stage about people “bidding” on whether he’d be wearing a black suit — and telling them they’ll “lose the bet.”
He didn’t say “Polymarket” outright, but he clearly referenced prediction markets being active around him. And unlike certain other apparel markets (looking at you, Zelensky suit drama), this one left no ambiguity.
The takeaway:
Prediction markets are now popping up in the most unexpected places — at the highest levels of global leadership.
🔗 https://x.com/predictionarc/status/1990957018631323853?s=20
📊 DATA CORNER: NOTIONAL VOLUME, USERS & CHAINS
We pulled up @datadashboards (aka Victor… not Victor Vaughn from Doom, not MF DOOM — a whole sidebar of confusion that unfolded live).
Key insights:
Opinion Labs Is the Surprising Outlier
Lower transaction count
But massive notional volume
Which implies fewer trades, but much larger size per trade
This suggests larger, high-conviction players… or that users are farming with size.
Polymarket Hits a Record
23 days into the month and already at a new all-time high for transactions — on track for ~17M this month.
Myriad Markets on the Rise
250K+ transactions last week
Only 5% from BNB — meaning growth is almost entirely from Abstract Chain users.
BNB-native users appear to prefer Opinion Labs.
Kalshi Missing from Some Dashboards
Not because they’re small — but because their data is not on-chain.
Data links:
https://x.com/Prithvir12/status/1991838743158788149?s=20
https://x.com/datadashboards/status/1992561217312030854?s=20
https://x.com/datadashboards/status/1991892465343922572?s=20
https://x.com/DustinGouker/status/1992580278796374028?s=20
https://dune.com/datadashboards/prediction-markets
🛍️ KALSHI x STOCKX — CULTURE MEETS MARKETS
Kalshi dropped a partnership with StockX, opening the door to markets around collectibles, sneakers, and cultural drops.
This is exactly the “culture markets” lane we’ve been calling out — Supreme, Jordans, Pokémon, everything that already trades informally.
TradFi is watching too:
Goldman’s private Las Vegas conference crowned Kalshi as the “star of the show,” with huge interest from investors.
Links:
https://x.com/Kalshi/status/1991172289594012071?s=20
https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1991886731818209701?s=20
🔗 MYRIAD MARKETS GO MORE ON-CHAIN
Myriad announced a partnership with Walrus Protocol aimed at becoming fully on-chain — eliminating the hybrid storage they use today.
There’s always a trade-off: more decentralization = more friction. But the ambition is serious, and the timing is early enough in the cycle for it to matter.
🔗 https://x.com/MyriadMarkets/status/1990854649868403127?s=20
🏛️ TRADFI VS. PREDICTION MARKETS: THE CAGE MATCH
A recurring theme this week: traditional gaming and betting voices are getting loud — and in some cases, openly hostile.
On one side:
Dustin Gouker, offering balanced, critical analysis
Industry analysts warning prediction markets not to use “sports betting” terminology in legal contexts
On the other side:
Victor Rocha (tribal gaming) saying prediction markets will “nosedive”
Heated exchanges with @probaaron
The subtext is clear:
This is fear.
If prediction markets weren’t a threat, TradFi wouldn’t be writing threads about them.
Links:
https://x.com/DustinGouker/status/1990787623426937036?s=20
https://x.com/probaaron/status/1992335092237451704?s=20
🌱 HOPIUM, CAREFULLY APPLIED
Nick Preszler dropped a take: meme coin supercycle is dead; prediction markets supercycle is here.
We mostly agree… except for the “here” part.
Prediction markets aren’t in a supercycle yet.
Regulators, incumbents, and infrastructure aren’t there.
We’re early — and that’s fine.
🔗 https://x.com/NickPreszler/status/1991932818549850151?s=20
🗳️ POLITICAL REALITY, AGGREGATED
Professor Andy Hall (Stanford, a16z Crypto advisor) spent Election Night in a room full of active political traders.
His essay covers:
Manipulation risks
Discovery of relevant markets
Defining truth at scale
It’s an academic, grounded look at how prediction markets can make democracies smarter — if designed well.
🔗 https://x.com/ahall_research/status/1991175070220492814?s=20
₿ BITCOIN: A TALE OF TWO PLATFORMS
We compared Kalshi vs Polymarket pricing for Bitcoin into year-end — and shockingly, both platforms were nearly identical.
The markets agree:
Where BTC won’t go
Only 8% think BTC goes above $130K
93% think $150K+ is off the table this year
Where BTC will go
61% think BTC trades below $80K before January
The same percentage on both platforms
The convergence is the story:
Two different audiences, two different market structures — same probability curve.
Links:
https://x.com/probaaron/status/1991893952027644044?s=20
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcmaxy/how-high-will-bitcoin-get-this-year/kxbtcmaxy-25
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcminy/how-low-will-bitcoin-fall-this-year/kxbtcminy-25-2
🌐 ECOSYSTEM SNAPSHOT
@PolymarketEco dropped an updated ecosystem map.
The design is dense — maybe a little too dense — but it highlights one important thing:
This space is maturing faster than any of us expected.
🔗 https://x.com/PolymarketEco/status/1991569880861249632?s=20
🤖 SELF-AWARE MARKETS
Trump has a market asking whether he’ll say “Polymarket” by year-end.
12% odds.
We’re not saying it’s impossible, but… it’s unlikely.
Market link:
https://x.com/CarOnPolymarket/status/1992306925753790864?s=20
🎲 WILD TRADES OF THE WEEK
The Oracle / Elon Wealth Whiplash
A phenomenal story about a huge intraday swing in Oracle stock that nearly flipped the “richest person alive” ranking — but because the Bloomberg index updates only once daily, the market resolved differently than expected.
🔗 https://x.com/holy_moses7/status/1992278059307729132?s=20
📉 CORRELATION ≠ CAUSATION
A meme comparing Bitcoin prices to Polymarket US launch prices — nearly identical chart patterns, but the hosts note clearly:
they’re unrelated coincidences.
🔗 https://x.com/lorden_eth/status/1992249564620079348?s=20
🏅 THE SPORTS TRADERS ARE BUILT DIFFERENT
Two standout profiles:
A trader with 90% win rate across thousands of predictions
Another who turned $500K → $1M in 2 hours on a single NHL game
Links:
https://x.com/jasper_b3ll/status/1991916609976316163?s=20
https://x.com/gavelsvtw/status/1991924036243427408?s=20
💰 ONE TRADER, FOUR STRATEGIES, $800K PNL
A detailed breakdown of:
Netted market spreads
Mispriced odds
Picking only high-quality markets
Trading news timing, not news arrival
🔗 https://x.com/KyleDeWriter/status/1991916952046969047?s=20
📈 THE HEALTHIEST P/L CHART WE’VE SEEN
No spikes.
No liquidation candles.
Just steady, geometric compounding — a chart you want to frame.
🔗 https://x.com/matthewmodabber/status/1992716285071814710?s=46
🚀 900x RETURN IN 11 TRADES
Yes, really:
$12 → $100,000 in 11 trades.
Win streaks aren’t random coin flips — good traders stack informational edges.
🔗 https://x.com/mango_lassi/status/1991527481044803742?s=20
🛡️ RISK MANAGEMENT MOMENT
GreekGambler shared his “worst” trade — entering a position at 98.8% to earn $8 — and how he worked out of a losing setup by averaging down because he had high conviction the price would bounce.
Risk cuts both ways. But the transparency matters.
🔗 https://x.com/GreekGamblerPM/status/1991255363593666865?s=20
🏦 FOMC DECEMBER MARKET VOLATILITY
The Fed rate-cut market flipped three times in a week:
No-change
Cut
No-change
Back to cut again
The hosts pulled up the Polymarket chart showing a rapid shift toward 25 bps cuts being the most likely outcome.
Links:
https://x.com/holy_moses7/status/1991859521392878067?s=20
⚙️ THE CAPITAL EFFICIENCY ERA
@SeoulDataLabs wrote a deep dive on Polymarket’s idle capital:
$240M in open interest
$155M in user proxy wallets
$400M+ total idle USDC
Even modest stablecoin strategies could unlock ~$8M in annual yield.
Not trivial — and incredibly relevant for the next phase of market infrastructure.
🔗 https://x.com/SeoulDataLabs/status/1990477586753896523?s=20
🤖 CAN CHATGPT HELP YOU TRADE?
@andrewcourt1 used ChatGPT to assist in Grammy markets, showing how liquidity incentives can create edges — but warns against blindly copy-trading the approach.
🔗 https://x.com/andrewcourt1/status/1990593643824996476?s=20
🎤 CLOSING THOUGHTS
This was one of the most packed weeks in recent memory.
From Saudi royalty to StockX, from political meta-analysis to Bitcoin convergence, from 900x heaters to $800K strategy breakdowns — prediction markets touched every corner of culture, finance, and the internet.
As Diego said at the end of the show:
Prediction markets don’t care about Bitcoin cycles.
They live on information, not vibes.
And the information firehose is only getting stronger.
We’ll be back Thursday.
In the meantime:
Follow @GroovyMarket_
Check out playground.groovy.market
And subscribe to the newsletter at The One Dollar Trade Show.
Thanks for riding with us.
More on the way.